Josh Pate backs Ohio State to beat Texas, reshapes CFP outlook

Josh Pate backs Ohio State to defeat Texas in the season‑opening showdown

College football analyst Josh Pate has publicly selected the Ohio State Buckeyes to win their non‑conference opening against the Texas Longhorns, a game slated for the first weekend of September. Pate’s projection appears in a Yahoo Sports preview that also breaks down the matchup by position, and it arrives at a moment when betting markets list Texas as a narrow favorite. The pick is more than a single‑game call; it signals a shift in Pate’s broader 2026 College Football Playoff (CFP) forecast, where he has moved Ohio State higher in his projected bracket.

Core developments across the coverage

The Yahoo Sports preview details a side‑by‑side analysis of the two programs. It notes that Ohio State’s depth at quarterback and its ability to generate yards after contact give the Buckeyes a strategic edge, while Texas’s revamped defensive line offers a counterbalance. Although the article does not disclose the exact point spread, it makes clear that the betting line favors Texas by a slim margin. Pate argues that Ohio State’s balanced offense and reliable special‑teams play outweigh the marginal market advantage held by Texas.

Beyond the individual game, Pate has been revisiting his CFP bracket for the 2026 season. In an On3 column, he reshuffles the projected field, elevating Ohio State into the top‑four seed group. He cites the Buckeyes’ recent recruiting class, continuity on the coaching staff, and early‑season schedule strength as the basis for the upgrade. The same theme recurs in a Sports Illustrated piece that describes a “historic powerhouse” – implicitly Ohio State – as the team most likely to capture the national championship. Both articles frame Pate’s Ohio State pick as a linchpin of his larger playoff narrative.

Other analysts, while focusing on different matchups, reinforce the importance of early‑season outcomes. Ducks Wire compiled expert predictions for an Oregon‑Texas Tech CFP‑relevant game, emphasizing that initial wins or losses can dramatically reshape the perceived hierarchy of the playoff picture. Although the Oregon‑Texas Tech discussion does not directly involve Ohio State or Texas, it illustrates a common analytical thread: early performance metrics are weighted heavily in CFP modeling.

Why it matters

The Ohio State‑Texas contest is a marquee non‑conference test that will serve as an early barometer for both programs’ national aspirations. A Buckeyes victory would bolster the perception that the Big Ten remains a dominant conference in the CFP era, potentially granting Ohio State a higher ranking in the first weekly CFP poll. Conversely, a Longhorn win could signal a resurgence for the Big 12, challenging the conventional power balance and influencing how bettors and media outlets assess conference strength.

Pate’s endorsement of Ohio State carries weight because his bracket adjustments have already been cited by other analysts as a reference point for CFP projections. By positioning Ohio State as a top‑four contender, Pate effectively raises the stakes for the opening game: the result will either validate his revised seedings or force a recalibration of his entire playoff outlook. The pick also feeds into the betting market; oddsmakers monitor expert opinions, and a high‑profile endorsement can shift line movements in the days leading up to kickoff.

From a recruiting perspective, early wins against elite opponents are leveraged by programs to attract top high‑school talent. Ohio State’s potential victory would provide a compelling narrative for coaches to use in conversations with prospects, while Texas would need to offset a loss with strong performances in subsequent conference play to maintain its recruiting momentum.

What the sources show

The Yahoo Sports preview offers a granular, position‑by‑position breakdown. It highlights the matchup between Ohio State’s running backs, who have demonstrated consistent production in the spring game, and Texas’s defensive front, which added several transfer players during the offseason. The article also points out that Texas’s secondary is relatively inexperienced, a factor Pate believes could be exploited by Ohio State’s passing attack.

Both the On3 and Sports Illustrated pieces focus on macro‑level implications. On3 documents Pate’s explicit decision to move Ohio State up in his CFP bracket, citing the program’s recruiting class ranking and coaching continuity as primary drivers. Sports Illustrated expands on that narrative by labeling Ohio State as a “historic powerhouse” poised to win the national championship, echoing Pate’s confidence in the Buckeyes’ long‑term prospects.

Where the sources diverge is in emphasis. Yahoo Sports leans heavily on tactical matchups—line play, quarterback depth, special‑teams reliability—while On3 and Sports Illustrated foreground the strategic re‑ranking of Ohio State within the playoff picture. None of the sources provide a definitive statistical projection beyond the market’s slight preference for Texas; instead, they all converge on the conclusion that Ohio State possesses the depth and execution needed to overcome that market edge.

The Ducks Wire roundup, though unrelated to the Ohio State‑Texas game, underscores a shared analytical mindset: early‑season results are treated as data points that can shift CFP modeling. The inclusion of that source demonstrates that Pate’s pick is being evaluated within a broader ecosystem of expert forecasts, where each game contributes to a cumulative assessment of playoff viability.

What’s next

The Ohio State‑Texas game is scheduled for the first Saturday of September 2026. In the immediate aftermath, analysts will dissect the result to gauge its impact on the weekly CFP rankings, which are released each Monday throughout the season. Pate has indicated that he will update his bracket on On3 after the game, potentially adjusting Ohio State’s seed based on the performance.

Betting markets are expected to react swiftly. If Ohio State wins, the odds for its subsequent games are likely to shorten, reflecting heightened confidence among bettors. Conversely, a Texas victory would keep the Longhorns as a slight favorite in their next non‑conference matchup and could prompt a modest widening of Ohio State’s odds.

Beyond the opening week, the two programs will each face conference opponents that will further define their CFP trajectories. Ohio State’s next game is a Big Ten rivalry that traditionally carries significant weight in the poll, while Texas returns to a Big 12 schedule that includes several ranked foes. The outcomes of those contests, combined with the opening result, will shape the narrative that Pate and other analysts use to refine their playoff projections.

Finally, recruiting cycles will begin to feel the ripple effects. A Buckeyes win against a storied program like Texas will be highlighted in recruiting pitches, potentially influencing undecided high‑school athletes during the early signing period. Texas, meanwhile, will need to leverage any positive performance metrics—such as a strong defensive showing even in defeat—to maintain its appeal to prospects.