Europe’s Fork in the Road: Immigration Policies Diverge as Rightward Shift Gains Momentum

Across Europe, a familiar tension is tightening its grip on political discourse: immigration. But the response isn’t monolithic. While a surge in anti-immigrant sentiment is undeniably reshaping the continent’s political landscape, the path forward for centre-left governments is fracturing. A stark contrast is emerging between nations like Denmark, adopting increasingly hardline stances, and Spain, which is doubling down on a pro-immigration approach rooted in economic necessity and social values. This divergence isn’t merely a matter of political ideology; it’s a potential turning point for the future of social democracy in Europe.

The Danish Experiment: Trading Rhetoric for Results?

For years, Denmark’s Social Democrats (SD) navigated a delicate balancing act. The rise of the far-right Danish People’s Party (DF), peaking with over 20% of the vote in the 2015 elections, forced a recalibration. The result was a so-called “paradigm shift” in 2019, embracing stricter immigration controls, temporary refugee status, and increasingly rigorous citizenship requirements. More recently, Denmark has even joined a chorus of eight EU states calling for a re-evaluation of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

Initially, the strategy appeared to work. The DF’s electoral fortunes plummeted, falling to 8.7% in 2019 and a mere 2.6% in 2022. However, recent local election results tell a different story. The SD suffered significant losses, including the symbolic defeat in Copenhagen – losing the mayoral seat after a century of control. Professor Michelle Pace of Roskilde University argues this signals a limit to the effectiveness of simply adopting right-wing rhetoric. “There’s a discord between what politicians are saying and what the general public and majority feel on this issue,” she explains, pointing to the “harsh rhetoric” as a potential driver of voter dissatisfaction.

The Danish approach has demonstrably reduced asylum claims, with the country recording historically low numbers in recent years. Yet, this has come at a cost. The controversial “Jewellery Law” of 2016, allowing authorities to seize valuables from asylum seekers, while grabbing headlines, has proven largely symbolic. Data from the Danish Immigration Ministry reveals only 194 cases of jewellery confiscation between January 2016 and June 2025. As Pace notes, it was “only a rhetorical deterrent,” contributing to a hostile environment without significantly impacting the broader issue.

Spain’s Contrarian Stance: Immigration as Economic Engine

In stark contrast to Denmark, Spain, under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, is actively championing immigration. Sánchez views immigration not as a problem to be contained, but as a vital component of Spain’s long-term prosperity. “Welcoming those who come from abroad in search of a better life is not only a duty that international law obliges us to fulfil, but also an essential step to guarantee the prosperity and sustainability of our welfare state,” he recently stated. This position is particularly noteworthy given the rise of the far-right Vox party, currently polling around 17% and challenging the traditional centre-right People’s Party.

Spain’s approach is yielding tangible results. Immigration has accounted for 84% of the country’s population growth since 2022, bolstering the workforce and fueling economic expansion. The Bank of Spain estimates that the country will need 25 million more immigrant workers by 2053 to maintain its pension system and address demographic aging. In 2024, Spain’s economy grew by 3.2%, the fastest rate in the Eurozone, a performance partly attributed to its welcoming immigration policies.

While Copenhagen and London have focused on deals to deport asylum seekers, Spain has actively sought to attract migrants and seasonal workers through international agreements, prioritizing legal and safe migration pathways. Sánchez acknowledges the societal challenges that immigration can present, but believes a long-term economic perspective is crucial. “It’s not short-term political rhetoric but rather long-term to the economy,” says Pace, highlighting the fundamental difference in approach.

A Continent at a Crossroads

The diverging paths of Denmark and Spain reflect a broader European dilemma. According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, there were an estimated 281 million international migrants globally in 2020, representing 3.6% of the world’s population. This number is only expected to rise, driven by factors such as conflict, climate change, and economic disparities. How Europe responds will have profound implications for its economic future, social cohesion, and political stability.

The Danish model represents a retreat into nationalist rhetoric, attempting to appease anxieties by mirroring the language of the far-right. The Spanish model, conversely, embraces immigration as a source of strength, recognizing its economic benefits and upholding the values of inclusivity and international cooperation. Ultimately, as Professor Pace suggests, this is a question of values. “It’s about the true values of a Social Democratic Party… And that’s where I think Spain could be a very interesting model, but it’s very little spoken about.” The coming years will reveal whether Europe chooses to build walls or bridges in the face of a changing world.

Across the continent, other nations are grappling with similar challenges. In France, the possibility of a far-right president looms large (read more). Sweden is witnessing a backlash against immigration fueled by nationalist narratives (see details), while Italy prepares for regional elections with immigration firmly on the agenda (learn more). Austria is also tightening its integration requirements for refugees (find out more), and Switzerland is preparing for future immigration changes (read the analysis).