College basketball picks: Predictions, odds for Players Era games on Tuesday
Thanksgiving Week Basketball Bonanza: A Full Slate of College Hoops
Las Vegas is buzzing this week, not just with holiday travelers, but with the high-octane energy of college basketball. The Players Era Festival is in full swing, offering a feast of games featuring eight ranked teams and a schedule stretching from afternoon tip-offs to late-night showdowns. It’s a welcome distraction as many across the nation prepare for Thanksgiving, and a chance for teams to fine-tune their strategies before conference play truly heats up.
Early Upsets and Emerging Stars
The tournament has already delivered its share of surprises. Baylor, entering Tuesday as an underdog, pulled off an impressive 81-74 victory over Creighton on Monday, showcasing a newfound balance on both offense and defense. Cam Carr led the Bears with a stellar performance – 21 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks – signaling a potential breakout season for the sophomore guard. This win, coming after a complete roster overhaul in the offseason (remarkably, Baylor has no returning players from last year’s team), demonstrates the coaching staff’s ability to quickly integrate new talent.
Meanwhile, St. John’s narrowly escaped with an 83-82 loss to Iowa State, but showed encouraging signs of growth. The Red Storm’s 15 assists and relatively clean game against Iowa State’s notoriously disruptive defense were positive indicators. The emergence of Dylan Darling at guard is particularly noteworthy, adding another dynamic playmaker to their lineup. However, the close call serves as a reminder that even talented teams need to execute consistently.
Testing Ground for Top Contenders
Beyond the upsets, the festival is providing valuable testing grounds for national championship contenders. Houston, ranked No. 3, faced a tougher-than-expected challenge from Syracuse on Monday, ultimately prevailing 78-74 in overtime. Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp combined for all 11 of Houston’s overtime points, finishing with 26 points apiece. This hard-fought victory will undoubtedly serve as a learning experience for the Cougars, highlighting areas for improvement as they navigate a demanding schedule.
Tennessee, currently ranked No. 17, dispatched Rutgers with a decisive 25-point margin, but faces a more significant test against Houston. While the Volunteers have looked dominant thus far, they haven’t yet encountered a team ranked within the top 130 in KenPom’s efficiency ratings. This matchup against Houston will provide a clearer picture of their true potential. According to the KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings, Houston boasts a defensive efficiency of 86.8, placing them among the nation’s elite.
Mid-Major Momentum and Potential Breakouts
The tournament isn’t just about the power conferences. Teams like Oregon and San Diego State are looking to make a statement on a national stage. Oregon suffered a setback against Auburn, but their depth and size could prove to be a significant advantage in their late-night matchup against San Diego State. The absence of SDSU big man Magoon Gwath will further complicate matters for the Aztecs.
Gonzaga’s 95-85 win over Alabama on Monday was a resounding statement. Tyon Grant-Foster and Graham Ike are proving to be a formidable duo, creating matchup problems for opposing defenses. Gonzaga’s balanced offense and experienced roster make them a dangerous opponent for anyone on their schedule. The Bulldogs are currently shooting 48.5% from the field, according to NCAA statistics, ranking them among the top 20 teams in the nation.
The Broader Context: College Basketball’s Evolving Landscape
The rise of these tournaments, like the Players Era Festival, reflects a broader trend in college basketball: a desire for more high-profile, neutral-site events. These events generate revenue for universities and provide valuable exposure for their programs. However, they also raise questions about the impact on traditional rivalries and home-court advantage. The NCAA has faced increasing scrutiny regarding its revenue distribution model, with concerns raised about equity and fairness among member institutions. A recent NCAA announcement details a new revenue distribution program aimed at addressing some of these concerns, allocating more funds directly to student-athletes.
Furthermore, the increasing emphasis on the transfer portal and name, image, and likeness (NIL) deals is reshaping the landscape of college basketball. Teams are now able to quickly rebuild their rosters through the transfer portal, and NIL deals are attracting top talent to programs with strong financial backing. This creates a more dynamic and unpredictable environment, where success is no longer solely determined by recruiting high school players. According to a report by Sportico, the total NIL valuation of college athletes exceeded $3 billion in 2023.
As the Players Era Festival continues, it will be fascinating to see which teams rise to the occasion and which ones falter. The tournament provides a glimpse into the future of college basketball, a sport undergoing rapid transformation. For fans, it’s a chance to witness exciting matchups and discover emerging stars. And for the teams involved, it’s an opportunity to build momentum and prepare for the challenges that lie ahead.
ARTICOL ORIGINAL:
It’s Thanksgiving week, and in college basketball, that means there is plenty of action on which to feast your fandom on. That is doubly the case Tuesday, with a jam-packed slate in the Players Era Festival as it takes center stage from Las Vegas. On the docket we have eight ranked teams in action from Sin City in games stretching from early afternoon to late at night. This is a ham and turkey-level spread with green bean casserole and stuffing. You should prepare accordingly.
The slate gets started with a matinee matchup on TNT between Rutgers and Notre Dame at 1 p.m. ET from MGM Grand Garden Arena before — prepare your second screen! — a 2 p.m. ET tip from Michelob Ultra Arena down the street between No. 15 Iowa State and Creighton.
But wait: there’s more! There are four more games on the schedule Tuesday after that first wave, culminating with an 11 p.m. ET tip between Oregon and San Diego State.
To celebrate the basketball bonanza I’ve convened our experts to make picks for every game from Vegas both straight up and against the spread. Those picks are below.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook | All times ET
No. 14 St. John’s vs. Baylor
4:30 p.m. on truTV: Despite a close-shave 83-82 loss to Iowa State on Monday, St. John’s acquitted itself well with 15 assists, 10 turnovers and a relatively clean game against the havoc-wreaking ISU defense. That’s encouraging moving forward. The emergence and reliance of Dylan Darling at guard is central to that optimism. Better days are ahead — and that could start Tuesday.
Baylor enters Tuesday as the underdog despite an impressive 81-74 victory over Creighton on Monday performing as favorites. It has found balance on both ends and a star in Cam Carr, who had 21 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks on Monday. But its striking lack of depth could hurt in a game of St. John’s caliber in particular. The relentless physicality of the Johnnies vs. the finesse and free-flowing Baylor may decide this one. Are the Bears up to the task?
Sneaky chance at being the best game on the slate Tuesday. Baylor’s not ranked but it is playing well despite a roster overhaul in the offseason that involved a completely new team. Yes: No returning players. Coming off a huge Monday win over Creighton I like the Bears to cover the number and potentially keep it close. Pick: Baylor +6.5 — Boone
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 17 Tennessee
6 p.m. on TNT:Houston was tested Monday more than was expected (and frankly, more than it should have been) tested in a 78-74 OT win over Syracuse. The good news is that it passed the test as Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp combined for all 11 Cougars points in OT to put it away. (They both finished with 26 points.) That’s a gut check to build and grow from.
Tennessee, as I predicted on HQ pregame, had no issues Monday in its own Tuesday appetizer — dispensing of Rutgers with a 25-point final margin. Rutgers is just not in a good spot right now. (It lost to Central Connecticut — not even main Connecticut! — on Friday.) It’s hard to get a good read on the Vols, who have yet to face a team ranked inside the top-130 at KenPom. That changes Tuesday.
This is Tennessee’s first real test of the season and its first matchup vs. a top-130 opponent at KenPom. Naturally, it comes against a similarly-built team in Houston that likes to win the same way: with defense, physicality and — oh yeah — did I mention defense. I think Houston has more of all the above and covers the number. But this could be a close one that is decided on the final few possessions. Pick: Houston -3.5 — Boone
8:30 p.m. on TNT: Michigan put belt to booty Monday in a 94-54 win over San Diego State. And yet … that was just the second-largest final margin of victory in a game this season for the Wolverines. For a team that made a habit of playing close ones last season, an encouraging sign.
Auburn showed out, too, beating a talented Oregon team by a final margin of 11 points. Tahaad Pettiford had 24 points and Keyshawn Hall had 18 — but more notable, Oregon guard Jackson Shelstad and Oregon big Nate Bittle were held to 19 total points on 2 of 15 shooting.
On paper these are two pretty evenly-matched teams playing very well. And, on paper, Michigan (the No. 2 defense in adjusted efficiency and the No. 5 team in KenPom’s net rating metric) has the edge in both metrics and talent. But if there’s an edge it’s only by a slim margin. Auburn is operating at a high level right now, though, and I’m not sure the metrics have captured that entirely. The defense of Kevin Overton and consistent impact of Elyjah Freeman has me believing the Tigers’ role players may be the difference. Pick: Auburn +5.5 — Boone
9:30 p.m. on truTV:Gonzaga’s 95-85 win over Alabama on Monday had me screaming I TOLD YOU!! from my couch. I’ve been the high guy on Gonzaga all season and that felt like vindication. I won’t be backing away from that adoration in my pick below. Tyon Grant-Foster and Graham Ike are matchup problems for the Terps.
Maryland is owed some respect, to be clear: It is 5-1 with wins over Marquette and UNLV, among others. But it does not have the experience nor the size nor the offensive weaponry to make me think it can pull off an upset here. The one thing it can hang its hat on, its defense, seems unlikely to be a difference-maker vs. Gonzaga’s efficient offensive machine. Few teams are as balanced on paper as Gonzaga is both on offense and defense. And few teams are as experienced on top of that balance. Gonzaga has very little to nitpick. This one could be all Zags. Pick: Gonzaga -13.5 — Boone
Oregon vs. San Diego State
11 p.m. on TNT: Monday was a wake-up call for both Oregon, which lost by 11 to Auburn, and San Diego State, which lost by 40 to Michigan. However, Oregon’s defeat feels much more like a blip than SDSU’s. It was aided by uncharacteristic turnover issues (which have been a problem early this season) and stretches of inconsistency on offense.
SDSU’s loss was its second letdown in as many outings the last week after falling in double OT to Troy at home. Now 2-2 on the season, the Aztecs issues on offense are tough to ignore. This could be a dead cat bounce situation as SDSU fights for pride following Monday’s beatdown. Oddsmakers seem to think that is very much in play.
The backcourt battle between these two talented teams — Jackson Shelstad vs. Miles Byrd in particular — should be fantastic theater. But the depth of Oregon and the size of Oregon — coupled with the absence of SDSU big Magoon Gwath — compels me to lean Ducks. Pick: Oregon -2.5 — Boone
UNLV vs. No. 8 Alabama
12 a.m. on truTV:There’s been some yo-yoing in Alabama’s outings this season to be expected with a nonconference schedule that is arguably among the toughest in college basketball. It beat St. John’s and Illinois but has losses to Purdue and now Gonzaga. It has its offense to rely on as always, though, even as its defense has faltered.
That could be a problem for UNLV given its struggles defensively. The Runnin’ Rebels are 147th in 3-point defense allowed by percentage, and given Bama’s history under Nate Oats we can expect a heavy dose of attempts from beyond the arc.
A midnight (ET) tip — have mercy! Alabama coming off a tough test vs. Gonzaga makes me think this one could be close. But UNLV’s defense is by far its weakest link — and one Alabama is built to exploit. If the 3-pointers fall it could turn from a rain to a downpour for the Runnin’ Rebels. Pick: Alabama -13.5 — Boone
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Rutgers vs. Notre Dame
1 p.m. on TNT: Neither Rutgers nor Notre Dame kicked off their week in Vegas with wins Monday — they lost to Tennessee by 25 and to Kansas by 10, respectively — setting up for what figures to be an important game for each before weeklong breaks going into the holiday. Notre Dame (4-2) and Rutgers (4-2) both play deliberate styles that in some ways are similar, but the Irish’s ability to defend inside the arc and Rutgers’ contrasting struggles to score consistently, makes the dichotomy of this one striking.
Picks above– mine included! — are largely chalky. But among underdogs Tuesday I think Notre Dame has a realistic shot at playing spoiler. The Irish have been competitive against quality competition this season even in defeat, and if they play up to their potential they can cover this number. Pick: Notre Dame -7.5 — Boone
No. 15 Iowa State vs. Creighton
2 p.m. on truTV: Iowa State seized its first real opportunity to make a statement in the spotlight Monday with an 83-82 win over preseason No. 5 (and current No. 14) St. John’s. Most impressively by the Cyclones, they won despite forcing only 10 turnovers and allowing 83 points — a season-low in forced turnovers and a season-high in points allowed, respectively, both of which have made them particularly lethal. The win came with a potential loss, though, as star guard Tamin Lipsey left near the end of the game with an injury and did not return. His status for the remainder of the week is unknown. Creighton, on the other hand, enters this game after a hard-fought loss to a Baylor team that smashed it on the boards, exposing its physicality — or lack thereof — despite drilling 11 3-pointers. Lipsey’s potential absence looms large, but this is undoubtedly two teams marching in diametrically opposite directions at the moment.
Few teams in college basketball play a more suffocating style than does Iowa State. The Cyclones are fourth in college basketball in turnover rate defensively and have a defense that is top-10 in adjusted efficiency metrics at KenPom. That’s accounting for its Monday matchup vs. St. John’s that dinged both numbers. That’s a tough combination for a rebuilding Creighton team that so far has struggled taking care of the ball and has looked listless at times facing pressure. This is a spot where ISU could win and win big — even if Lipsey can’t go. Pick: Iowa State -5.5 — Boone
Kansas vs. Syracuse
3:30 p.m. on TNT: Syracuse suffered its first loss of the season Monday at the hands of No. 3 Houston in a 78-74 overtime loss. But final result aside, it was an encouraging performance for the Orange and third-year coach Red Autry to push the national runner-up Cougars a full 45 minutes. It didn’t feel fluky, either. Syracuse was just-OK shooting the ball and committed 13 turnovers, which was part of its demise.
Another big opportunity to measure itself awaits Tuesday vs. Kansas in Vegas where it will again be underdogs. Kansas won its first Vegas test Monday over Notre Dame 71-61 but it continues to be without injured star Darryn Peterson.
Without Peterson, Tre White and Melvin Council have had to step up in his absence — but it is undoubtedly a void that largely remains unfilled because of Peterson’s tremendous impact on both ends. That could open the door for a competitive one between these two as they wrap their respective weeks in Sin City.
It’s hard to beat Houston even on its off day but Syracuse nearly did exactly that despite not playing all that well Monday. I’m hesitant to overreact to that one-game result but I am also afraid of not reacting enough. And what I saw in that game was a motivated, together team that has the size and skill to surprise a few teams this year. I’m not sure Kansas will be that team necessarily, but it was impressive enough to give me a lean on taking the points here with the Orange. Pick: Syracuse +5.5 — Boone