Bardella 2027: Le RN prépare-t-il une succession à Le Pen ?

France’s Far-Right Faces Succession Question as Le Pen’s Legal Battles Loom

PARIS — The French far-right National Rally (RN) is navigating a period of uncertainty as it eyes the 2027 presidential election, grappling with the potential legal challenges facing its leader, Marine Le Pen, and the rising prominence of her protégé, Jordan Bardella.

Recent polling data has thrown the party’s future into sharp relief. A November survey by Odoxa showed Bardella leading in all potential scenarios against other candidates, including current President Emmanuel Macron. This followed an earlier poll by Ifop, initially testing only Bardella’s candidacy, which sparked internal friction within the RN.

A Shadow of Legal Uncertainty

The core of the RN’s dilemma lies with Le Pen’s ongoing legal battle. In January and February 2026, an appeals court in Paris will review a case involving alleged misuse of European Parliament funds – specifically, accusations of improperly employing parliamentary assistants. A conviction could result in a ban from holding public office, effectively ending Le Pen’s presidential ambitions.

While Le Pen publicly dismisses the threat, acknowledging the possibility of a late ruling impacting the campaign, the reality is casting a long shadow. “If the Court of Cassation were to render a decision too close to the election date, the National Rally’s campaign could not proceed under good conditions,” she recently stated in an interview with Ouest-France.

Bardella’s Ascent

As Le Pen’s future hangs in the balance, Bardella is actively positioning himself as the heir apparent. He’s embarked on a highly visible book tour, complete with long lines and enthusiastic supporters, mirroring the pre-campaign strategies of other contenders like Éric Zemmour in 2021. This has prompted some within Macron’s Renaissance party to strategize on how to counter Bardella’s growing momentum, according to reports from Franceinfo.

The shift in focus towards Bardella also complicates the narrative surrounding potential legal setbacks for Le Pen. If Bardella is already a strong contender in the polls, the argument that a conviction is a politically motivated attempt to disqualify a leading candidate loses some of its potency.

Internal Divisions and a Lingering Hope

Despite the changing landscape, loyalists to Le Pen remain steadfast in their support. Renaud Labaye, a close advisor, insists that Le Pen’s continued activity and popularity demonstrate her enduring relevance. “If she were resigned, she wouldn’t be so active… and people wouldn’t be seeking her out so much,” he told Le Monde.

Some within the party still cling to the vision of Le Pen as president and Bardella as prime minister, believing his popularity will bolster her campaign. However, this sentiment appears increasingly out of step with the evolving political reality.

The situation highlights a delicate balancing act for the RN: maintaining the appearance of unity behind Le Pen while simultaneously preparing for a potential future led by Bardella. As the legal proceedings draw closer, the party faces a critical juncture that will determine its path forward and its chances of reaching the Élysée Palace.

Statistical Context: France’s political landscape has seen a consistent rise in support for far-right parties over the past two decades. In the 2022 presidential election, Marine Le Pen achieved her highest-ever vote share, reaching the second round and securing over 41% of the vote. This demonstrates a significant and growing segment of the electorate receptive to the RN’s platform. The potential for Bardella to capitalize on this existing support base, coupled with Le Pen’s legal challenges, presents a unique and potentially transformative moment for French politics.